YONHAP NEWS

(News Focus) Large group of swing voters poses threat to ruling party

   By Shin Hae-in
SEOUL, March 30 (Yonhap) -- The number of swing voters has increased by a large margin 10 days ahead of South Korea's parliamentary elections, signaling trouble for President Lee Myung-bak's conservative party, according to polls out Sunday.

   Although the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) continues to enjoy high popularity, backed by Lee's landslide presidential victory last year, its hopes of securing a solid majority in the legislature have been faltering mainly due to a recent split among the conservative bloc.

   While the GNP's approval rating is gradually sliding, the percentage of undecided voters has increased by nearly 10 percentage points, according to surveys conducted over the weekend.

   "Polls show that many of those who initially supported the GNP have chosen to delay decision following the split of the conservatives," said political analyst Im Myung-jin. "While the increase in floating votes means better chances for the opposition party and the minor conservative group, it could pose further threat to the GNP."
In a poll of 6,000 voters, the independent polling group Global Research said Sunday that 32.9 percent supported the ruling GNP, while 15.3 percent favored its rival United Democratic Party (UDP). As many as 31.6 percent said they were undecided.

   The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

   While the GNP's popularity dropped by 9 percent points compared to a similar poll last month, the approval rating of an alliance of candidates who bolted the GNP rose by 7 percentage points.

   The UDP's popularity remained unchanged, showing that the liberal party has failed, thus far, to lure the floating conservative voters.
Supporters of former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye bolted from the ruling party en masse to run as independents in the April 9 elections, jeopardizing the conservative party's chances of winning big especially in its home turf Gyeongsang provinces.

   With a total of 68 seats up for grabs in its home turf, it is critical for the GNP to win big in the region to secure a majority of seats in the 299-member National Assembly.

   Should the party fail to secure a simple majority in the single-chamber parliament, the Lee administration will face hurdles in pushing ahead with reform bills during its five-year term.

   The split of the GNP is a product of an ugly internal feud over the party's nomination of candidates in which many pro-Park figures dropped out.

   Park, who retains considerable political influence among the country's right-wingers, has been indirectly supporting the independent candidates by refusing to join her party's electioneering. She claims that her supporters were victims of factionalism.

   Pro-Park candidates are either ahead or neck-and-neck in races with GNP nominees in 92 of the 245 constituencies to be filled with candidates to be chosen by direct votes, the local daily Munhwa Ilbo said, citing a March 29 survey.

   The remaining 54 slots will be filled with candidates to be picked in proportion to indirect votes to be cast to each party. The GNP is believed to be ahead in the proportional representation votes.

   President Lee's controversial plan to build cross-country waterways and the recent aggravation of inter-Korean relations are also posing threats to his party.

   Opposition candidates are trying to use Lee's unpopular canal project to swing voters in their favor. South Koreans are badly spilit over the canal project. Supporters say that it would help revive the economy, while critics argue that it is econominally infeasible and would only wreak environmental havoc.

   The GNP has kept the controversial canal project off its campaign pledges, but rival parties have cried foul, accusing it of trying to dodge issues that may prove unfavorable to the ruling camp.

   Liberal parties led by the UDP are also upping the offensive against the Lee government's hard-line North Korea policy, claiming that it has strained relations between the two Koreas.

   The North's communist regime last week expelled 11 South Korean officials from a joint industrial site and fired several short-range missiles into the West Sea, in an apparent show of discontent toward the Lee government's tougher North Korea stance.

   Striving to downplay a possible negative political blow, the GNP has been refraining from making strong comments on both issues.

   "But the GNP is unlikely to see a greater drop in approval ratings with the Lee Myung-bak effect still strong," the analyst, Im, added. "With many new candidates unfamiliar to the public, the overall popularity of parties will likely decide the outcome of this year's elections."
hayney@yna.co.kr
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