YONHAP NEWS

(News Focus) Rocket launch adds to U.S. foreign policy burden, complicates denuclearization: experts

   By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, April 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's launch of a rocket will seriously undermine U.S. efforts to resume international talks for the nuclear dismantlement of the reclusive communist state, experts said Saturday.

   The launch will also lead to the resumption of missile talks suspended a decade ago, adding to the foreign policy burden of the fledgling U.S. Barack Obama administration, which is struggling with the North Korean nuclear threat and other security challenges in Afghanistan and the Middle East as well as the worst recession in decades, they said.
"The test adds another issue to an already challenging security agenda in Northeast Asia," Scott Snyder, director of the Center for Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation, said. "Issues must be addressed in a comprehensive fashion, including how to reverse nuclear and missile proliferation, which also must take into account global dimensions."

   Evans Revere, president of The Korea Society, repeated Snyder's theme.

   "North Korea probably believes that since the United States is interested in adding missiles to the agenda for bilateral and multilateral talks, testing this missile system now adds to the eventual price that the U.S. would have to pay to convince North Korea to cease its ballistic missile testing," he said.

   U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said she was ready for missile talks with North Korea, suspended a decade earlier under the administration of her husband Bill Clinton, although she did not elaborate on whether they would be incorporated into the multilateral nuclear talks.

   During talks initiated after North Korea fired its first ballistic missile in 1998, Pyongyang demanded Washington pay up to US$1 billion annually in compensation for halting its long-range missile exports, deployment and development.

   The U.S. believes the launch of what Pyongyang insists is a satellite is cover for a ballistic missile delivery test, as the same delivery system is used for both satellite and missile launches.

   "By proceeding with a satellite launch, Pyongyang can test and improve some of the technologies, materials, and systems that can eventually be used to enhance its missile launch capability," Revere said.

   North Korea claims it put a small experimental satellite into space in 1998, but the U.S. sees it as a failed attempt.

   The North made another launch in 2006, this time admitting it was a ballistic missile, but the missile fizzled shortly after lift-off.

   Experts believe North Korea has since greatly improved its ballistic missile capability, noting the successful orbiting of a satellite recently by Iran which has been developing missiles with the North's support for past decades.

   "When Iran launched their long-rang Safir missile in February, they used North Korean missile components and technical support," Bruce Klingner, senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation, said. "And Pakistan's mid-range Ghauri missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, is actually a renamed North Korean Nodong."

   Klingner feared the devastating effect of the North Korean missile capability combined with a nuclear warhead, noting recent reports that U.S. experts believe North Korea has built or is attempting to build nuclear warheads small enough to fit on its ballistic missile arsenal.

   North Korea detonated its first nuclear device in 2006 and is believed to possess several nuclear warheads, amid conflicting reports on the North's ability to miniaturize it for missile delivery.

   Obama met with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in London Thursday on the sidelines of the G20 economic summit, where they agreed they will refer any rocket launch by North Korea to the U.N. Security Council for possible punitive action. But Chinese President Hu Jintao stopped short of doing the same while meeting with each of the the two leaders during the G20.

   Revere predicted difficulties in gaining support from China and Russia -- who hold veto powers in the U.N. Security Council -- for further sanctioning of North Korea.

   "Obtaining Chinese, and perhaps Russian, agreement for a new UNSC resolution containing additional measures against North Korea will be very difficult," he said. "Perhaps it will be possible to get a UNSC President's statement, including a call for the enforcement of existing sanctions deriving from UNSC Resolution 1718."

   Resolution 1718, adopted after North Korea's nuclear test in 2006, bans any ballistic missile activity by North Korea and imposes a trade embargo for North Korea on missile parts and other weapons-related products as well as luxury goods. Its enforcement, however, is believed to have been largely neglected by member states due to a lack of strong implementation measures.


Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation, said North Korea's assertion that the launch is of a satellite rather than a missile, and the Chinese and Russian acceptance of that position would complicate the prospects for a rapid and unified response from the UN Security Council.

   "At the same time it is not clear what would be gained by passing a new resolution when the existing UNSCR 1718 has been largely unimplemented," Flake said. "It may be a far better strategy for work toward a Presidential Statement condemning the launch, calling for a end to any further missile related activities, and a return in earnest to the six party talks."

   The North's rocket launch, in the meantime, will likely considerably delay any resumption of nuclear talks as it should be seen as a hard blow to the Obama administration, which has not yet formulated its North Korea policy.

   "The missile launch is only one of several factors that will probably contribute to a toughening of the Obama Administration's posture vis-a-vis North Korea," Revere said, noting the launch and other hostile acts "reflect Pyongyang's unwillingness to respond positively to the overtures President Obama and his administration have been making towards Pyongyang."

   "Ironically, the arrival of the Obama Administration is the best chance that North Korea has ever had to resolve the fundamental issues between itself and the United States, and North Korea has responded to this opportunity by seeming to reject it," he said. "If and when talks resume, they will take place in a much more tense and difficult environment."

   Snyder, however, was more optimistic, saying the North's rocket launch was motivated by domestic factors, and with the lapse of the motivation, talks should resume.

   Speculation is rife that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il needs to consolidate his power for a possible dynastic power succession to his third son, Jong-un. The reclusive North Korean leader is believed to be recovering from a stroke he reportedly suffered last year.

   "The DPRK decision to conduct a launch has been primarily driven by domestic political factors, although there are also secondary objectives that North Korea may have perceived as potential collateral benefits from such a launch," Snyder said. "North Korea is conducting classic prenegotiation maneuvers."

   hdh@yna.co.kr
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