YONHAP NEWS

(LEAD) Obama says Kim Jong-il is healthy and in firm control

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Sept. 20 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is healty and in firm control of state affairs.

   "I think President Clinton's assessment was that (Kim Jong-il is) pretty healthy and in control," Obama said in an interview with CNN. "That's important to know, because we don't have a lot of interaction with the North Koreans. And, you know, President Clinton had a chance to see him close up and have conversations with him."

   Obama was speaking about former President Bill Clinton's visit to Pyongyang early last month to meet with Kim Jong-il for the release of two American journalists held there for illegal entry.

   Obama said he would "not go into any more details than that," but added, "There's no doubt that this is somebody who, you know, I think for a while people thought was slipping away. He's reasserted himself. It does appear ... he was more concerned about succession when he was sick, maybe less so now that he's well."

   Obama's remarks are in line with those of Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, who said last week that "Kim Jong-il was upright. He appears to be cogent and entertaining reasonable discussions with the former president. We were less certain of those capabilities than we are now."

   Clinton's Pyongyang trip appears to have terminated suspicions over the health of the reclusive leader amid reports that he had begun the process to cede power to his third and youngest son, Jong-un, after apparently suffering a stroke in the summer of last year.

   Kim's health failure has been often cited for the North's provocations early this year, including its second nuclear test and a barrage of missile and rocket tests, only to invite international sanctions.

   A possible regime collapse has since been a topic of discussion not only in the academic circle, but also within the U.S. government.

   A U.S. government team is examining several scenarios, including "regime collapse in North Korea," for inclusion in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the first to be released under the Obama administration. The U.S. has also reached out to China, but the Beijing government refused to discuss the possibility of a regime change or collapse in the North, apparently to avoid provoking its closest communist ally.

   Keating said in July that the U.S. has come up with scenarios to cope with any contingency in North Korea in the event of the death of the ailing leader.

   "We are prepared to execute a wide range of options in concert with allies in South Korea and in discussions through (the Department of) State, which would have the lead, with countries in the region, and internationally if necessary," he said. "I don't think it is axiomatic that the departure of Kim Jong-il means a national security crisis. We'd hope it wouldn't. But we are going to be prepared if it does mean that."

   U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in February has also touched on the issue. "There is an increasing amount of pressure because, if there is succession, even if it is a peaceful succession, that creates even more uncertainty and it also may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate power within the society."

   Obama said he was satisfied with the cooperation from China and Russia in sanctioning North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests under U.S. resolutions.

   "We have been able to hold together a coalition that includes the Chinese and the Russians to really apply some of the toughest sanctions we've seen, and it's having an impact," he said.

   Some analysts believe Obama has not yet made a decision on a possible trip to Pyongyang by his point man on North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, due to conflicting opinions within his administration, with some supporting active engagement and others calling for more time to press the North harder.

   Hardliners believe sanctions persuaded Kim to make conciliatory overtures after months of provocations.

   Kim Jong-il extended the invitation to Bosworth, special representative for North Korea policy, when Clinton visited Pyongyang.

   U.S. officials have said a decision will be made after Obama and Hillary Clinton meet with their counterparts from the other parties to the six-party talks on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York next week.

   Washington has said the North Korean nuclear issue should be resolved through the six-party talks, involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia, but recently softened its stance by saying it can have bilateral talks as part of the six-party talks.

   Kim Jong-il said Friday North Korea will have both bilateral and multilateral talks.

   Kim made the remarks when he met with a senior Chinese official, Dai Bingguo, in a major departure from the North's earlier threat to abandon the six-party talks permanently due to international sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests.
Analysts say Bosworth may visit Pyongyang in late October or early November after Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao attends a ceremony in Pyongyang in early October to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two communist allies.

   In a response to Kim Jong-il's remarks, Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, said in Tokyo Friday that "It sounds as if North Korea is underscoring that it will accept those conditions."

   Campbell was talking about the U.S. position that any bilateral contact between the U.S. and North Korea should be held only within the framework of six-party talks.

   "If we have any initial bilateral interaction with North Korea, it will be as a means to get back to the six-party talks," he said. "We have no intention of conducting bilateral negotiations with North Korea absent a six-party framework."

   hdh@yna.co.kr
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