YONHAP NEWS

(LEAD) (News Focus) Obama on short stay makes progress on N. Korean nukes, FTA: experts

By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Barack Obama's less-than-24-hour stay in South Korea appears to have spawned guarded optimism on possible progress in the six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions and ratification of a free trade deal.

   Such optimism springs from the announcement Obama made in Seoul to send Stephen Bosworth, special representative for North Korea policy, to Pyongyang in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who has demanded bilateral talks with the U.S. before coming back to the negotiations stalled over U.N. sanctions for the North's nuclear and missile tests.

   On the bilateral free trade agreement, Obama said he is ready to deal with South Korea separately from other Asian countries, such as China, which has been stashing away a huge surplus in trade with the U.S.

   Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is willing to discuss the imbalance in auto trade, the biggest barrier to the ratification of the deal signed in June 2007.

   John Feffer, co-director of the Foreign Policy In Focus program at the Institute for Policy Studies, said that Obama "is clearly eager to see progress in talks with North Korea," adding, "I think it is significant that President Obama announced the trip."

   Feffer was echoing the view of some analysts that it is rare and symbolic for a U.S. president to announce such a diplomatic mission, especially in Seoul, just a couple of hundred kilometers away from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.

   In a joint news conference with Lee, Obama offered Pyongyang "the reduction of sanctions and its increasing integration into the international community, something that will be good for its people ... if North Korea is taking serious steps around the nuclear issue," adding, "We will not be distracted by a whole host of other side items that end up generating a lot of meetings but not concrete action."

   Obama and other U.S. officials have said that the upcoming bilateral talks aim to lure the North back to the six-party talks rather than discussing substance.

   Feffer, however, said, "Bosworth will convey quietly what the United States is willing to offer in return for dismantlement."

   He was not sure if the U.S. point man on North Korea will have an audience with Kim Jong-il "since he might not be considered high-enough status to meet face to face with the North Korean leader."

   Kim has so far met only two senior American officials, Madeleine Albright, then secretary of state, in Pyongyang in 2000, and President Bill Clinton.

   Clinton visited Pyongyang in August to get the release of two American journalists held for illegal border crossing. Kim proposed a bilateral high-level dialogue through Clinton at that time.

   New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who has visited Pyongyang several times to negotiate the release of Americans detained there, told CNN, "You never know what they're going to do next. But I think this is a good step forward ... I believe, probably, an informal understanding was reached that if Bosworth went and had bilateral talks that the North Koreans eventually would return to the six-party talks."

   Richardson said Obama "has forged a new path. And I think it's got a good chance of succeeding."

   The former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. described Obama's new approach of offering incentives as similar to the so-called grand bargain Lee has proposed as a one-step solution.

   "We're going to look maybe at a grand bargain," he said.

   Obama himself said in Seoul, "I think President Lee is exactly right, and my administration is taking the same approach, which is the door is open to resolving these issues peacefully."

   "The thing I want to emphasize is that President Lee and I both agree on the need to break the pattern that has existed in the past, in which North Korea behaves in a provocative fashion, it then is willing to return to talks," he said. "It talks for a while and then leaves the talks, seeking further concessions and there is never any progress on the core issues."

   Feffer agrees to the comprehensive approach.

   "I think that the grand bargain approach is the only viable one," he said. "The step-by-step approach encounters numerous political obstacles as critics attack each step on the road toward dismantlement and full engagement."

   Critics have said the grand bargain is unrealistic due to opposition from the North and incompatible with the six-party deal, which calls for action for action in a step-by-step approach.

   "The single-step grand bargain idea is interesting, but in practical terms it does not necessarily solve the problem encountered by the old approach," said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu. "Even if North Korea agreed to the idea, it would still have to be implemented gradually and Pyongyang could stall or cheat or quit along the way."

   Feffer disagrees. "Such a concept is fully compatible with the six-party process as long as all the parties agree with it," he said. "For me, the most important part of the six-party process is its institutionalization in a regional security framework. Such a framework can serve as the ultimate guarantor, for all parties involved, of the grand bargain agreement."

   Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society, supported Feffer's idea.

   "The concept of a grand bargain or a comprehensive approach is not new," he said. "It recognizes the fact that the nuclear issue cannot be resolved in isolation. A comprehensive resolution of the nuclear and other issues would provide the best possible guarantee for a stable, peaceful, and nuclear-free future for the peninsula. I think such a comprehensive approach is at the heart of both the Obama administration's and the Lee administration's preferred way of dealing with the DPRK."

   DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

   On the KORUS FTA, Revere was cautiously optimistic.

   "President Obama's comments during his Asia visit, and particularly his remarks in Seoul, have given me a bit more reason to feel optimistic about prospects for ratification of the FTA," Revere said. "His recognition that each trading relationship needs to be seen on its own merits and his positive reference to the need to pursue the FTA suggest to me that there is more hope for the FTA today than there was before the president's Asia trip."

   Obama expressed concerns in Seoul earlier in the day over "the incredible trade imbalances that have grown over the last several decades," but added, "Those imbalances are not as prominent with Korea."

   "But there has been a tendency I think to lump all of Asia together when Congress looks at trade agreements and says it appears as if this is a one-way street," Obama said. "And one of my goals is to make sure that as we work through these issues, that the American people, American businesses, American workers, recognize that we have to look at each agreement and each country on its own merits and make sure that we can create the kind of win-win situation that I know President Lee is interested in seeing as well."

   Lee discussed the FTA at length while meeting with Obama earlier in the day, South Korean officials said, adding the two leaders touched upon a timeline for the pact's ratification, though they may not disclose that in deference to their respective legislatures.

   Obama told Fox News Wednesday, "The question is whether we can get it done in the beginning of 2010, whether we can get it done at the end of 2010. There's still some details that need to be worked out." He was asked if he thinks congressional passage of the Korea FTA, signed in 2007, could happen next year.

   South Korea has said it wants Congress to approve the deal by next summer, emphasizing that failure to do so could push ratification to after 2011 because of congressional elections next November.

   South Korea's foreign affairs and trade committee of the National Assembly has approved the pact and the ruling Grand National Party, which has the majority of seats in parliament, is set to bring it to the full Assembly for ratification as soon as Congress moves.

   U.S. trade officials, however, have said they want to address U.S. concerns over the imbalance in auto trade and restricted shipments of beef, possibly in side agreements without revising the text of the deal.

   Some Democrats in Congress, supported by labor unions, fear the deal could bring job losses amid the worst recession in decades.

   Studies show the implementation of the FTA with Korea, the seventh biggest trading partner for the U.S., will create 240,000 new jobs and increase annual two-way trade by more than US$20 billion from the current $83 billion.

   "I believe the issue is the U.S. Congress, not Obama," said Barry Bosworth, senior research fellow at the Brookings Institution. "Obama does not want to introduce the treaty unless he can obtain approval. At present that would be hard. There is no consensus on trade policy in the United States at the present time, and Obama has too many issues of higher priority in his dealings with the Congress."

   Bosworth was apparently referring to health care reform and the wars in Afghanistan and Iran.

   Feffer also sees little chance for the trade deal, even with changes.

   "Congress has been increasingly skeptical of FTAs over the last decade, with each new bill passing by slimmer and slimmer margins," he said. "So, particularly at a time of recession, it will be very difficult for the president to push this one through -- even if Korea offers up concessions."

   Roy dismissed such an opposition as being "more emotional and superficial than analytical," saying, "It should be encouraging to Seoul that Obama spoke positively of the KORUS FTA."

   "If Obama is willing to provide leadership, key Democratic members of Congress might be willing to take a closer look at it and conclude it is worthy of ratification," he said. "Of course, if they take a broader strategic view, it makes good sense to take steps to solidify the U.S.-Korea relationship to counter the rising influence of China."

   hdh@yna.co.kr
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