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(LEAD) (News Focus) N. Korea's overtures put S. Korea in dilemma over nuclear talks
By Chang Jae-soon
SEOUL, July 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's surprise overtures following a mild U.N. rebuke over the sinking of a South Korean warship have put Seoul in a dilemma over whether to soften its hard-line stance and resume nuclear talks with the communist nation, analysts said Monday.
A day after the U.N. Security Council adopted a presidential statement without directly blaming Pyongyang for the March sinking of the warship Cheonan, Pyongyang's foreign ministry said Saturday it remains committed to the stalled six-party talks over its nuclear programs.
The reaction came as a surprise because North Korea, which has denied any responsibility for the sinking, threatened to go to war if it is condemned, and the U.N. statement condemned the attack and strongly implied Pyongyang's responsibility.
Analysts and officials in Seoul said that the North is trying to find a way out of the high-pressure situation overshadowed by the Cheonan's sinking at a time when its economic troubles are deepening and leader Kim Jong-il is trying to hand power over to his son.
Friday's report by Pyongyang's state news agency that an American jailed in the North attempted to kill himself is part of the regime's attempt to push the United States into dialogue, along with an offer, also made Friday, to hold military talks with the U.S.-led United Nations Command, they said.
"North Korea is putting forward an exit strategy in an attempt to escape from the Cheonan-dominated situation at an early date and turn the situation into a dialogue phase with the U.S.," said professor Kim Yong-hyun at Seoul's Dongguk University.
"That's because if the confrontation phase over the Cheonan case is dragged on, it could put burdens on the regime grappling with economic difficulties, succession plans and the issue of leader Kim Jong-il's health," he said.
The North's charm offensive has posed a difficult question to South Korea that has been unwilling to reopen the six-party nuclear talks unless the ship sinking is resolved. Seoul has demanded that Pyongyang apologize for the attack and punish those responsible.
"I think North Korea first took hold of the initiative in bringing an end to the Cheonan-overshadowed situation," said Kim Young-su, a North Korea expert at Sogang University in Seoul. "Our government, which has put the Cheonan ahead of six-party talks, has been placed at a crossroad.
But the professor said Seoul "needs some justification" in heading toward an exit strategy.
On Sunday, a senior South Korean official said that the North appears to be "looking for a way out," but that the "ball is in North Korea's court," stressing that Pyongyang should first create an atmosphere for resuming the stalled nuclear talks.
The on-again-off-again talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., have been stalled since the last meeting in late 2008. While staying away from the talks, North Korea conducted its second-ever nuclear test last year.
"North Korea should first apologize for the Cheonan case or acknowledge its responsibility and show its willingness to denuclearize to make it possible for the six-party talks to resume," the official said.
"Sincerity and trustworthiness are important for resuming the talks," he said. "This is a matter of willingness. If it is willing (to apologize), it can do so in whatever way."
On Monday, Seoul's foreign ministry spokesman Kim Young-sun said past experiences show that North Korea's return to the dialogue table on its own is meaningless unless the regime is serious about abandoning its nuclear programs. Kim pointed out that Pyongyang conducted nuclear tests twice while the negotiating process was under way.
"What is important is not resuming the six-party talks themselves, but for the North to show sincere willingness about denuclearization," he told reporters. "We will consult closely with other members of the six-party talks (about resuming the talks) while monitoring North Korea's actions" in the wake of the U.N. statement.
Pyongyang has often used its participation in nuclear talks as a negotiating card. It has been a standard pattern of North Korean behavior to raise tensions with provocations and then return to the dialogue table to get the concessions it wants before backtracking on agreements and quitting the talks again.
South Korea, the U.S. and other like-minded partners have been trying to break the pattern, stressing the importance of the North showing sincere willingness to give up its nuclear programs before agreeing to reopen the nuclear talks.
Still, analysts have warned that Seoul could be sidelined from North Korea's denuclearization process if it remains offish for too long, as China is expected to work actively to reopen the stalled six-party talks, and the U.S. could move gradually in that direction as well.
Right after the U.N. statement on the ship sinking was adopted, Beijing's foreign ministry called for resumption of the nuclear talks, saying regional powers should "take this opportunity to quickly move to the next page of the Cheonan incident."
"The answer is obvious. We have to view the situation from the perspective of maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula," Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said of how Seoul should respond to Pyongyang's charm offensive.
"We have to seek North Korea's denuclearization and discuss ways to reduce tensions through six-party talks, including ways to prevent an incident like the Cheonan case from happening again," he said.
Yang also voiced concern that South Korea could be isolated if it sticks to the hard-line stance while China and the U.S. seeks to reopen the nuclear talks.
"We have to understand the grime reality in the international community," he said. "After all, global powers will act depending on their own national interests. There are no permanent enemies or friends."
jschang@yna.co.kr
(END)
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