By Lee Chi-dong
WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 (Yonhap) -- The Obama administration's wait-and-see attitude toward North Korea's new leadership is expected to lead to another nuclear test by the unpredictable communist regime, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

   "This failure to be more proactive is likely to end in a different kind of bad news -- another nuclear test," said Philip W. Yun, executive director of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation.

   Talks between Washington and Pyongyang have been notably lacking since the abrupt death of leader Kim Jong-il in mid-December. Kim's third son, Jong-un, has taken the helm of the nuclear-armed nation.

   Kurt Campbell, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, openly admitted the difficulty of figuring out what's going on in the secretive country, and Washington's response is still hanging in the balance.

   In this presidential election year, the U.S. government has been also preoccupied with other pending issues such as Iran, Syria and the European economic crisis.

   In his contribution to The Hill, titled "Don't Ignore North Korea," Yun emphasized that the U.S. should not waste any more time.

   "Just as a policy of fostering regime change is not tenable, a seemingly reasonable wait-and-see/status quo approach is also inadequate," he said. "It could sow the seeds for yet another nuclear test in 2013, which could lead to engineering advances that allow the totalitarian North to produce smaller (and more) nuclear warheads."

   Yun was deeply involved in diplomatic efforts toward North Korea, working as senior adviser at the U.S. State Department from 1994 to 2001.

   He pointed out that in the 1990s, the world discounted Kim Jong-il as an "incompetent playboy," but he pulled off two nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.

   The U.S. views the new leader as an "untested young boy."

   Yun said the North will likely choose a third nuclear test for military and technical reasons, given the need for a follow-on experiment for its plutonium-based nuclear weapons program.

   The new leader, Jong-un, is also coming under great pressure to demonstrate bold leadership, Yun added.

   "Rather than reading tea leaves about the future, we need a solid grip on the present," he said. "Let's focus on the real and urgent, seriously probing North Korea's new leadership for facts -- and prevent yet another nuclear test."

   lcd@yna.co.kr
leechidong@gmail.com
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