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(LEAD) (News Focus) Kim Jong-il paves way for successor: analysts
By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had two aims in appointing his brother-in-law to the country's powerful military board and reshuffling its lineup, analysts said Friday -- to cement his standing and solidify leadership that could function once he is out of the picture.
Kim, 67, now back in control after a reported stroke last summer, considerably amplified the National Defence Commission (NDC) in a meeting of the newly elected parliament Thursday, increasing the number of its members to 13 from eight and bringing in new members from outside the military.
Most notably, Kim's brother-in-law and right-hand man, Jang Song-thaek, made it into the military board along with his own close aide.
"Overall, the power of the National Defence Commission was strengthened," Seoul's Unification Ministry spokesman, Kim Ho-nyoun, said in a briefing.
Kim Jong-il came back into the public spotlight as the country's rubber-stamp parliament reappointed him as chairman of the NDC, in his first major appearance since he supposedly fell ill.
His movements at the meeting appeared easier and more brisk than those shown in photos months earlier. The state-run Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station aired footage of Kim walking to his seat, clapping his hands and turning a page in a document at an assembly hall.
After his absence from public view, Kim wants to reassert his unmatched power and at the same time prepare a ruling system that will follow him, Seoul analysts said. Jang, who married Kim's only sister, Kim Kyong-hi, in 1972 and currently is a powerful department director of the Workers' Party, is known to be close to the leader's sons.
Tied by family relations and with his political savvy, Jang, 63, has been Kim's close confidant and has drawn people around him. But in a society where all power is concentrated in one person, Jang's growing influence may have been understood as a challenge to Kim's monarchy and led to punishment in the past.
In one case, Jang disappeared from public sight in 2004 for more than a year, amid reports he was suspended from duties for inciting factionalism.
Jang returned to center stage, rejoining Kim's entourage on field trips, in early 2006, and is believed to have solidified his status as No. 2 when the leader fell ill. He was spotted increasingly frequently with Kim during his field trips this year -- 21 times until early April, compared to 4 throughout in 2007 and 14 in 2008 -- a sign he may have been tasked with overseeing state affairs.
"Jang's appointment is definitely related to the post-Kim era," said Cha Doo-hyeogn, a North Korea expert with the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.
By placing Jang on the NDC, which has so far been dominated by military officials, the North Korean leader set up a comprehensive system that combines the party and the military and can legitimately help run the country when he is unable to, Cha said.
"Kim wants to keep the military in check," he said. "Secondly, after his death or when he is incapacitated, the National Defence Commission can rule on his behalf or help his successor run the country."
Analysts have said Jang may play a caretaking role for Kim's successor, who will possibly be one of his three sons. Some sources say Kim has named his youngest son, Jong-un, in his mid-20s, as his heir but Seoul intelligence officials say there is no hard evidence to prove it.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korea may start officially promoting Kim's successor after 2012, a target year for becoming a "powerful" nation and the centenary of the birth of Kim's father and the country's founder, Kim Il-sung.
"Jang's foremost role for now will be stabilizing Kim's regime," Yang said. "At the same time, he may organize a loyal group for a successor so that the heir can be officially proclaimed after 2012."
Analysts noted there was no major reshuffle of the new parliament, as old members stayed on, a sign Kim wants to keep the status quo while grooming his heir.
In what appeared to be a response to South Korea's conservative Lee Myung-bak government, the North abolished a committee on economic cooperation with South Korea from its Cabinet, which was set up amid friendlier ties in 2004. Major inter-Korean economic ventures were shut down last year as political relations fell apart. The North also threatened the last remaining such project, a joint industrial complex in the North's border town of Kaesong, last month.
"Our view is that North Korean thoughts about inter-Korean relations were reflected" in the abolishment of the committee, said the Seoul ministry spokesman, Kim Ho-nyoun.
Thursday's appointments also revealed North Korea's views of its recent rocket launch. Kim promoted Ju Kyu-chang, a party member who played a key role in preparing the launch as a missile expert and who stood next to Kim in a photograph taken in celebration, as a member of the NDC.
North Korea has claimed Sunday's launch was a "historic" success that put a communications satellite into orbit, while outside monitors have said the payload splashed into the Pacific Ocean.
South Korea, the United States and Japan believe the rocket launch was actually a test of the North's ballistic missile technology and have called for the U.N. to stiffen sanctions against the isolated state. But China and Russia, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, appear reluctant.
North Korea timed the rocket launch with the opening session of its new parliament, making "fireworks" for Kim as he started his new term, said Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea professor at Dongguk University.
With a new government now in place, the North Korean leader will now likely focus on Washington, possibly using two American journalists detained in the communist country as leverage to induce direct negotiations, he said.
"The Supreme People's Assembly meeting was the climax of North Korean politics in April," the professor said. "North Korea wants dialogue, and the U.S. would not insist on the resolute position that it is now taking in terms of coordination with South Korea and Japan."
hkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
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