*** TOPIC OF THE WEEK (Part 2)

South Korea, U.S. Prepared for 'Instability' in North Korea

South Korea and the United States said on Oct. 8 they have been prepared to effectively respond to a potential "instability" in North Korea as the North's ailing leader apparently sets the stage for his youngest son to take the socialist state.
"If Kim Jong-il's health worsens further or economic difficulties deteriorate, we can't rule out a situation of instability in North Korea," South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told reporters after the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

   "An instability in North Korea would pose a grave threat to the security of South Korea," Kim said. "So, South Korea and the U.S. agreed to prepare for all situations that could occur in North Korea."

   In a joint communique released after the SCM talks, Kim and Gates said they received a report from their military commanders that the "combined defense posture is capable and ready to 'fight tonight,' and that it is prepared to effectively respond to any provocation, instability or aggression."

   It was the first time that a joint communique, released after every annual meeting of the two nations' defense ministers since 1968, included the word "instability" in reference to North Korea - signaling that the allies are developing more realistic war plans to cope with political instability in the North, according to Seoul's defense officials.

   The youngest son of Kim Jong-il, who suffered a stroke in 2008, was on Sept. 27 designated a four-star general and assigned to a key post in the North's ruling party, apparently paving the way for the son to inherit the family dynasty. Experts warn of possible infighting over the rise of Kim Jong-un, who is believed to be in his 20s, because he is too young and untested.

   Citing speculation that the succession process may prompt the North's regime to stage further provocations, Gates said the U.S. remained committed to the defense of South Korea.

   "We are committed to providing extended deterrence using the full range of American military might, from our nuclear umbrella to conventional strike and ballistic-missile defense," Gates told reporters at a joint press conference alongside the South Korean defense minister.

   At this year's SCM talks, South Korea and the U.S. agreed to set up a joint military committee, called the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee, to deter threats posed by North Korea's nuclear programs and other weapons of mass destruction.

   The U.S. has reaffirmed its pledge to provide a nuclear umbrella for South Korea at every annual meeting of their defense ministers since 1978, but this was the first time they agreed to institutionalize a joint military body to develop specific countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear programs, missiles and biological weapons, said Chang Kwang-il, Seoul's deputy defense minister for policy.

   It is also the first time the U.S. has created such a military committee with a non-NATO ally, Chang told reporters, comparing it to NATO's Nuclear Planning Group.

   "The institutionalization of the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee will serve as a cooperation mechanism to enhance the effectiveness of extended deterrence," Chang said. "By doing so, it would not only send a deterrence message to North Korea, but also help ease security fears over North Korea's nuclear programs among our people."

   Extended deterrence means the U.S. can provide tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, as well as conventional strike and missile-defense capabilities, to defend South Korea in case of an attack from North Korea.

   Pyongyang, which conducted nuclear tests twice in 2006 and in 2009, is believed to have enough weaponized plutonium to build up to half a dozen atomic bombs. International denuclearization-for-aid talks on the North's nuclear programs have been stalled since the last round in December 2008.

   Chang said South Korea is closely monitoring the North's activity at the Yongbyon reactor after recent satellite photo images showed Pyongyang may be restoring facilities at the complex, which was presumably disabled under a 2007 disarmament deal.

   "Construction activity has been detected at the Yongbyon site, and we assume it may be related to a nuclear program," Chang said. But it remains uncertain exactly what North Korea was building there, he said.

   Kim and Gates also reaffirmed their close cooperation regarding North Korea's nuclear issue and urged the North to "carry out the complete and verifiable abandonment of all of its nuclear programs and demonstrate through actions its genuine will to denuclearize," Chang said.

   The talks came amid ongoing tension on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea was accused of a deadly attack on one of South Korea's warships in March.

   Aware of a worsening security environment following the attack on the Cheonan warship that left 46 sailors dead, Kim and Gates reaffirmed that North Korean aggression and provocation would not be tolerated.

   "In the wake of the Cheonan incident, the close cooperation across the whole of our two governments sends a clear message to North Korea that its provocation and aggression will not be tolerated," Gates said.

   They also agreed to increase joint monitoring activities on the North Korean situation, especially leading up to the Group of 20 summit slated for next month in Seoul, officials said.

   Kim and Gates signed a new plan on details for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces to the Seoul side in 2015.

   The plan, known as Strategic Alliance 2015, was developed after President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed in June to delay the transfer from 2012, responding to security concerns in the South from the sinking of the Cheonan.

   South Korea voluntarily put the OPCON of its military under the American-led U.N. Command shortly after the three-year Korean War broke out in 1950. In 1994, peacetime control was handed back to South Korea, but wartime control remains in the hands of the top U.S. commander in South Korea, who heads both the UNC and the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command.

   Other key agreements signed by Kim and Gates were the Guidelines for Defense Cooperation, which seeks to embody the future vision of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, and the Strategic Planning Guidance, which provides upgraded war plans and more realistic exercises to deter a full spectrum of threats against South Korea, officials said.

   About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea, a legacy of the Korean War.

  (END)