*** FOREIGN TIPS

Eldest Brother Casts Doubts on Kim Jong-un's Grip on Power

TOKYO (Yonhap) -- The eldest brother of North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un has expressed doubts about his half-sibling's hold on power, anticipating the ruling elite to extend their influence over the communist country, a Japanese newspaper said on Jan. 12.

   Kim Jong-nam told the Tokyo Shimbun in an e-mail sent on Jan. 3 that he has "doubts about how a young successor with some two years (of training as heir) can retain the 37 years of absolute power" wielded by his late father and former leader Kim Jong-il, the newspaper said.

   Kim Jong-nam, believed to be in his late 30s, has lived abroad for years after apparently falling out of favor with his father for attempting to enter Japan on a fake passport in 2001.

   A source familiar with Kim's activity told Yonhap News Agency in December that the eldest son had arrived in Beijing from the Chinese gambling enclave of Macau, shortly before Pyongyang held a state funeral for his father on Dec. 28. It remains unclear whether Kim Jong-nam attended the funeral.

   "I expect the existing ruling elite to follow in the footsteps of my father while keeping the young successor as a symbolic figure," he said in the e-mail, making his first remarks on the North Korean regime and succession process since his father's death.

   "It is difficult to accept a third-generation succession under a normal reasoning (process)."

   It is not the first time Kim Jong-nam has been critical of the hereditary succession in his country that started when his father inherited power from his own father and North Korea founder Kim Il-sung in 1994.

   Kim Jong-nam told the Tokyo Shimbun in January last year that "even Chairman Mao Zedong of China did not enforce hereditary succession."

   "(Hereditary succession) does not fit with socialism, and my father was against it as well," he was quoted as telling the paper in an exclusive interview held in a southern Chinese city.

  
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N. Korea Test-fired 3 Short-range Missiles in Mid-January

TOKYO (Yonhap) -- North Korea test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea in mid-January, apparently as part of efforts to improve its missile technology, a Japanese newspaper said on Jan. 13.

   North Korea launched what appeared to be KN-02 ground-to-ground missiles on Jan. 11 morning, according to multiple Japanese government sources quoted by the Sankei Shimbun.

   The socialist country also test-fired two short-range missiles on Dec. 19, shortly after it announced the death of its longtime leader Kim Jong-il. South Korean officials said they did not see the launch as anything more than test-firing.

   The South's military believes North Korea is developing KN-06 missiles, which are an improvement over the KN-02, and has been test-firing them since last year to check their performance before deploying them.

  
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North Korean Regime to Collapse by 2030: Russian Expert

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- A democratic and market-oriented external environment as well as growing access to outside information will likely push the reclusive North Korean regime to collapse by 2030, paving the way for the reunification, a Russian academic said on Jan. 12.

   The remarks by Alexander Dynkin, the director of the Russian think tank Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), came as North Korea is being closely watched for any clues on its future course following the Dec. 17 death of its longtime leader Kim Jong-il.

   Kim's third and youngest son, Jong-un, has taken the helm of power in Pyongyang, but the succession process remains shrouded in secrecy.

   "This regime will not survive (the) next 20 years," Dynkin said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency in Seoul, adding that the external environment has changed substantially since the last regime change in 1994.

   "In 1994, China was just in the starting process of their market reforms, Russia was in a total mess after 1991, South Korea just started going out of the ... totalitarian regime to democratic society, which we see now," the professor said. "Currently, this (North Korea) regime is surrounded by more or less market oriented and pro-democratic forces, maybe except in China ... and (the) regime has to react somehow."

   Dynkin was referring to the regime change in 1994, when Kim Jong-il inherited power from his own father and founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, who died of a heart attack.

   Mobile phones, which are gaining increasing popularity in North Korea despite strict restrictions on information flow, may also be a catalyst for change in the communist regime.

   "I do remember that in the Soviet Union, (during) the period of the tape recorders, it was completely independent dissemination of information," Dynkin said. "And some of our historians believe that tape recorders, it's a very old technology, (to) some extent (brought) down the communist regime in the Soviet Union."

   The sudden death of Kim Jong-il has also brought the two Koreas closer to reunification, even compared with the 2030 forecast IMEMO published late last year, Dynking said.

   "I guess it will happen in the mid-(20)20s, something like that," Dynkin said. "I guess that the young guy has some different experiences in comparison with his grandfather and father. I guess he uses the Internet. ... He has access to foreign countries, foreign information."

  
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N. Korea Suspected of Trying to Hack into Seoul University

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea is suspected of masterminding last year's attempt to hack into the e-mail accounts of a Seoul university's graduate school alumni, school officials said on Jan. 17.

   The Graduate School of Information Security at Korea University said it has conducted a joint investigation with intelligence authorities to track the origins of the hacking attempt, upon learning that an e-mail carrying malicious codes was sent to some of its graduates via its internal e-mail accounts last November.

   "The e-mail was found to have been sent from a server based in Taiwan often used by North Korea," a school official said, declining to be identified.

   "But no damage has been reported, as our graduates who received the e-mail never opened the file attached, and the codes did not work well from the first place," he added.

   The malicious code can reportedly infect the computer of the recipient, and give hackers access to the user's e-mail exchanges.

   The school authorities said they blocked the graduate school's separate e-mail server to integrate all the accounts with the university's server, which is equipped with a relatively stronger protection system as part of efforts to beef up security.

   North Korea has recently launched several cyber attacks on the South, crippling the computer networks of a major local bank and attacking the web sites of the presidential office and other government agencies last year.

  
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India Expected to Continue Food Aid to North Korea

NEW DELHI, India (Yonhap) -- India is expected to continue sending humanitarian food aid to North Korea as part of its efforts to hold China, the North's main benefactor, in check, Seoul's top diplomat in New Delhi said on Jan. 17.

   South Korean ambassador to India Kim Joong-keun said New Delhi sent a shipment of soybeans worth US$1 million to North Korea last July at the request of Pyongyang, adding that India was one of the few nations to accept the North's plea for food assistance.

   "I think India will continue to send food aid to North Korea in the future to keep China, which exercises absolute influence on the North, in check," Kim told Yonhap News Agency in an interview.

   India is unhappy with North Korea because it believes Pyongyang helped Pakistan, its archrival, develop nuclear weapons, Kim said.

   "Nevertheless, India will continue to use food aid to North Korea as a means of checking China, which has exerted more influence on the North since the passing of Chairman Kim Jong-il," the ambassador said.

   Since the demise of North Korea's longtime ruler Kim, who reportedly died of a heart attack on Dec. 17, his youngest son and designated successor, Kim Jong-un, has taken the helm of the impoverished communist state, but experts remain cautious on whether the transfer of dynastic power to the untested leader will be stable.

   Little is known about the North's new leader, who is believed to be in his late 20s, and the succession process has been shrouded in secrecy. Immediately after the abrupt death of Kim, China, the North's key ally, threw its backing behind Pyongyang's new leadership.

   North Korea, one of the poorest countries in the world, has vowed to usher in a prosperous nation by this year, the centennial of the birth of the late Kim's father, the country's founder Kim Il-sung. Doubt still persists over whether the North can achieve its stated goal due to chronic food and power shortages.

  
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Path for Dialogue with North Korea Open: Allies

WASHINGTON (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan agreed on Jan. 17 to keep the door for talks with North Korea open, an official said after their trilateral meeting intended to discuss the next steps in dealing with the socialist nation under a new leadership.

   "Through today's meeting, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan agreed to an opinion that the path for the resumption of talks (with North Korea) is open," the South's chief nuclear envoy Lim Sung-nam told reporters.

   Lim participated in a day-long meeting at the State Department with his American and Japanese counterparts, Glyn Davies and Shinsuke Sugiyama, and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell.

   The allies also agreed that "South-North Korean relations and the U.S.-North Korea relationship can be improved through dialogue," Lim added.

   He said that the three parties will also closely consult with the other members of the six-way nuclear talks -- China and Russia.

   The U.S. said the trilateral meeting is a routine event. But it drew keen attention since it marks the first since the death of the North's leader, Kim Jong-il, in December.

   The world is keeping tabs on the leadership of Kim's third son, Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s.

   The North recently issued a statement that it would never deal with the South's Lee Myung-bak administration, claiming it did not pay proper respects with regard to Kim's death.

  
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Pyongyang-based British Envoy Doubtful of Collective Rule in N. Korea

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea's young leader Kim Jong-un appears to be running the socialist regime under collective leadership, but it remains to be seen how long the inexperienced leader will depend on the new system, Britain's top diplomat stationed in Pyongyang said on Jan. 18.

   Kim Jong-un, the third and youngest son of late leader Kim Jong-il, is believed to be in his late 20s and has been rapidly consolidating power since the death of his father on Dec. 17. North Korea's military, the backbone of the country's communist system, has openly pledged loyalty to him.

   Intelligence experts in Seoul and Pyongyang have predicted that the young Kim would rule North Korea with a small group of caretakers, including his aunt and uncle, helping him make major decisions until he assumes full control. Kim Jong-il and founding leader Kim Il-sung ruled the country under a one-man dictatorship, drawing attention toward Kim Jong-un's adoption of collective rule.

   The international community is keeping a wary eye on the apparent collective rule in the North because it would be the first leadership change since the Kim dynasty's one-man dictatorship began in 1948.

   "Kim Jong-un seems to be very confident," Karen Wolstenholme, the British ambassador to North Korea, told Yonhap News Agency in an interview in Seoul. She added, "(The power transition in Pyongyang) certainly appears smooth and I think having had almost 18 months preparation has made it easier for Kim Jong-un."

   The late Kim's funeral showed that a coterie of so-called "guardians" for the young Kim emerged to help him facilitate the hereditary succession process, including Jang Song-thaek, husband of Kim Jong-il's younger sister Kyong-hui.

   "The collective leadership around him I think was the people who walked alongside the coffin (of the late Kim Jong-il), walked with the cortege at the funeral," Karen said.

   "The long-term question will be how long will Kim Jong-un need the collective leadership? How long will he rely on the collective leadership? How long will the collective leadership think he needs them?" she said.

   "These I think are questions that we will only be able to answer in the next three to six months," said the ambassador, who visited Seoul for the first time since the death of Kim.

   Tension remains high on the Korean Peninsula after two deadly North Korean provocations in 2010 that left a total of 50 South Koreans dead. Some analysts predict that the North's young leader is likely to carry out another provocation this year to consolidate his military credentials.

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