*** FOREIGN TIPS

Police Brace for N.K. Provocation ahead of Nuclear Summit, Elections

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- South Korea's police said on Jan. 27 the chance of military provocations from North Korea are high ahead of Seoul's global summit in March and two major elections this year.

   South Korea's hosting of the Nuclear Security Summit in March and the general and presidential elections in April and December, respectively, will possibly prompt the North to launch military provocations, Seoul's police agency said in its annual report on security prospects.

   The report predicted the communist North's new leader Kim Jong-un would largely follow his father Kim Jong-il's hawkish policy stance on inter-Korean relations while occasionally attempting conciliatory strategies to thaw the tie.

   The North Korean regime may step up cyber attacks on the Web sites of major South Korean institutions, as its new leadership is expected to increase efforts to create social conflict and divisions of opinion in the South, the police report said. The socialist country will also likely increase efforts to support pro-North Korean activists and spies in the South.

   The security forecast also raised the prospect of an uptrend in terrorist attacks targeted on public places rather than conventional military or government facilities, as well as an increase in burglary and rape cases.

   A possible increase in the number of random attacks, mostly committed by mentally-troubled people or social misfits, as well as growing terrorism against multi-culturalism were also predicted in the report.

  
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N. Korea's Average Temperature 4 Degrees Lower Than in S. Korea

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- The average temperature in North Korea has been 4 degrees lower than in the South, while the North has experienced a smaller amount of annual rainfall, the weather agency in Seoul said on Jan. 27.

   The median temperature in the socialist country, located in higher latitudes, was 8.5 C, or 4 degrees colder than the average posted in the South, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said in its compilation of the North's weather conditions during the 1981-2010 period.

   The highest annual average temperature in the North during the 30-year period was recorded at 14.1 C, while the lowest annual average stood at 3.7 C, the KMA data also showed.

   January in North Korea was the coldest month, with its average monthly temperature at minus 7.7 C while August posted the highest average temperature of 22.6 C.

   The weather agency also noted that the average annual precipitation in the North stood at 919.7 millimeters over the cited period, which accounted for only 70.3 percent of the average amount of rainfall in the South. Summer rain accounted for nearly 60 percent of the North's total precipitation.

   "North Korea's mountainous, inland areas and highlands showed lower temperatures than in coastal regions, while the eastern regions received the heaviest rainfall due to east winds," a KMA official said. He added that the agency plans to use the latest weather information for an array of purposes, including analyzing climate changes on the Korean Peninsula and predicting future weather conditions.

  
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Food Rations to North Koreans on Steady Rise Since October

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea has steadily increased its food rations to citizens from October last year, a South Korean relief group activist said on Jan. 29, citing an official from a U.N. organization.

   "We heard from an official at the Pyongyang office of the World Food Program (WFP) that the amount of food rations increased to 395 grams per person this month," the activist who recently returned from a trip to the North said.

   According to the WFP, the North's food rations decreased from 400 grams per head in April last year to 190 grams in May and to 150 grams in June. But after the fall harvest, the amount began to rise to 355 grams in October, 365 grams in November and 375 grams in December.

   The January's amount was up 20 grams from the previous month and also 15 grams more than 380 grams that the North Korean authorities unveiled in a plan delivered to the WFP at the end of last year.

   The rise in the North's fall harvest last year by 300,000 to 400,000 tons than the previous year seems to be the main reason behind the increased food distribution.

   Pyongyang is known to have made efforts to increase crop yields by importing an unprecedented amount of fertilizer from China last year.

   In its report to the WFP, the North Korean government also citied the fall harvest as a reason for the increased rations. In addition, the North continued importing food even after the fall harvest season that year.

   Analysts say chances are low that the food distribution might be stopped or drastically reduced this year.

   "North Korea will be able to secure 400,000 tons, the shortfall from its minimum food requirement this year, through imports and outside aid," Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute, said. "This level (of food inventory) might not be enough but few will likely starve to death," he added.

   The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

  
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N. Korea Planning Large Military Parade This Year: Official

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea has been preparing for a large military parade for this spring since before the death of its former leader Kim Jong-il, a government official here said Monday.

   "North Korea has been practicing a military parade, with troops and equipment on hand, at the Mirim Airbase near Pyongyang," the official said. "This began before the death of Kim Jong-il last year (in December)."

   The official added the North's military may be targeting the 100th birthday of the country's founder, Kim Il-sung, on April 15, or the 80th founding anniversary of the military on April 25.

   Sources said the rehearsals have mobilized active and reserve troops, and also new armored vehicles and short- and mid-range missiles.

   "North Korea stages a parade on national holidays such as the founding anniversary of the military," the official added. "Considering the pace and the size of the rehearsals, the parade will likely be held in April rather than Feb. 16, Kim Jong-il's birthday."

  
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Hotel Room Shortage Limits Foreign Travelers to N.K. in April

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korean hotels appear to be sold out for dates before and after the country's milestone anniversary in April.

   North Korea is expected to hold a huge celebration on April 15, the centennial of the birth of the country's founder Kim Il-sung, grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un.

   "We are no longer able to accept any applications for tours entering the (North) from 7-20th April due to limitations on hotel rooms at that time," Koryo Tours, a Beijing-based agency that specializes in trips to North Korea, said on its Web site on Jan. 30.

   The North apparently plans to invite a number of foreign dignitaries for the huge celebrations, causing a temporary shortage of hotel rooms for ordinary foreign tourists, said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher of peace and unification studies at Seoul National University.

   North Korea has about nine hotels in Pyongyang, according to North Korean defectors living in South Korea.

   Koryo Tours said foreign tourists who already made reservations may watch mass games known as the Arirang Festival on April 14, on the eve of the centennial of late Kim's birthday.

   The huge extravaganza features tens of thousands of young gymnasts performing synchronized acrobatics, dances and flip-card mosaic animation in what is believed to be the largest gymnastics show in the world.

  
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North Korea-China Trade Jumps 62 Percent in 2011: Data

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Two-way trade between North Korea and China jumped 62 percent in 2011 from the previous year, with the North doubling its exports of minerals to its major ally, data showed on Jan. 31.

   According to figures compiled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) in Seoul, the value of bilateral trade reached US$5.63 billion in 2011, up 62.5 percent from $3.46 billion in 2010.

   North Korean exports to China reached $2.46 billion, an increase of 107.4 percent from the previous year, while imports grew 38.9 percent to $3.17 billion, the data showed.

   The jump in North Korean exports was attributed to a large increase in sales of mineral resources, including coal and iron ore, while the North's imports consisted mainly of crude oil, the KITA said.

  
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U.S. Diplomat Says 'Open to Diplomacy' with N.K.'s New Leadership

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- The United States is "open to diplomacy" with North Korea's new leadership since the death of Kim Jong-il, but stresses the North must improve ties with South Korea to have better relations with the U.S., a senior American diplomat said on Feb. 1.

   Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, Washington's top diplomat for Asia, also said North Korea should take the necessary steps before any resumption of stalled six-party talks to end the North's nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid.

   "We are open to diplomacy with North Korea," Campbell told reporters in Seoul after meeting with senior South Korean officials, including Lim Sung-nam, Seoul's chief envoy to the six-party talks.

   "But there's a very clear set of steps that we think are necessary. The steps have been closely coordinated with Japan and particularly with South Korea and we're still waiting to see whether the new government in North Korea is prepared to take the necessary steps."

   During Campbell's talks with South Korean officials, the two sides reaffirmed that "a path is open to North Korea towards the resumption of talks and improved relations with the United States and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) through dialogue."

   "We also underscored again very clearly that the road to these improved relations runs through Seoul for North Korea," Campbell said.

   Campbell arrived in Seoul on Jan. 31 for a two-day visit as the first leg of an Asia tour. During a speech on Jan. 31 evening, he called on North Korea to improve ties with the South, while expressing confidence the Seoul-Washington military alliance could deter any provocation from the North.

   "There is hope in diplomacy," Campbell said. "That hope in diplomacy rests in the reality of a very strong deterrence and military commitment that will be unwavering."

   The international community is keeping a wary eye on the North's untested new leader, Kim Jong-un, who took over Pyongyang's socialist regime after his father died of a heart attack in December. The young leader, believed to be in his late 20s, was made a four-star general and a key party member in 2010.

   Many analysts have raised concerns the young Kim may launch another provocation, or military attack, against South Korea to help him consolidate power and internal unity. Tension remains high on the Korean Peninsula after two deadly North Korean attacks in 2010 that killed 50 South Koreans.

   In 2011, diplomatic efforts to restart the six-party talks gained momentum, but the death of Kim has left prospects for resumption of the talks more uncertain. The talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., have been dormant since late 2008.

  
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North Korea Expanded Grain Imports from China in 2011: Researcher

SEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea increased its imports of grain from China in 2011 despite an improved harvest, a South Korean researcher said on Feb. 1, indicating an apparent attempt to ensure a successful celebration of the North's milestone anniversary this year.

   North Korea bought 376,431 tons of grain from its neighbor in 2011, 20 percent more than its purchases of 313,695 tons in 2010, according to Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute in Seoul.

   In the fourth quarter alone, North Korea imported 125,700 tons of grain from China, up more than 20 percent from the same period the previous year, Kwon wrote on his blog, citing data from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) and other sources.

   The increases were unusual as they came despite a larger harvest last fall, he noted.

   The stockpile of imported grain is seen as a means to appease the impoverished North Korean people as the Pyongyang regime seeks to become a "strong and prosperous nation" this year, to coincide with the centennial of the birth of national founder Kim Il-sung, grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un.

   Corn accounted for the largest share of the grain by type at 36.1 percent, followed by flour at 33.2 percent, rice at 24.5 percent and beans at 5.4 percent, Kwon said. The most notable change was the jump in the share of corn from 27.9 percent in 2010.

   The imports cost North Korea US$166.2 million last year, up 44.3 percent from $115.2 million in 2010.

   China, North Korea's largest ally and benefactor, has propped up the North's economy by providing food and other aid despite frequent international sanctions against the nuclear-armed Pyongyang regime.

   The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

   On Jan. 30, Japan's Tokyo Shimbun newspaper reported China pledged to provide 500,000 tons of food and 250,000 tons of crude oil to the North following the Dec. 17 death of former leader Kim Jong-il.

   The decision came a day after the North announced Kim's sudden demise and was designed to help his son, new leader Kim Jong-un, stabilize the country, the newspaper said, citing unidentified Chinese and North Korean sources.

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