North Korea to avoid war rhetoric for now: China experts
2014/02/25 14:45
BEIJING, Feb. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is unlikely to repeat last year's threats of war over ongoing South Korea-U.S. military drills, raising hopes that Seoul and Pyongyang might seek more exchanges following just-ended reunions of families separated for decades, two Chinese experts said Tuesday.
However, it is still far from clear whether such possible confidence-building measures between Seoul and Pyongyang could help resolve a long-running standoff over North Korea's nuclear weapons program, with the North showing no sign of giving up its nuclear ambitions, they said.
Seen as a potential first step toward warming inter-Korean ties, the reunion event, the first since late 2010, came after rare high-level talks between the two Koreas earlier this month.
North Korea had originally demanded South Korea delay the annual drills with the U.S., which started Monday, until after the reunions, which ended on Tuesday. It later made a rare concession to go ahead with the reunions of families divided by the 1950-53 Korean War.
Albeit vocal in its opposition to the ongoing drills, it marked a sharp contrast to North Korea's belligerence last year, when Pyongyang threatened nuclear attacks against Seoul and Washington after its third nuclear test.
"Compared with last year, the intensity and scale of the exercise this year are weaker. That demonstrates the restrained attitude of the ROK (South Korea)-U.S. alliance toward the DPRK (North Korea)," Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the state-run China Daily newspaper.
"Both Seoul and Pyongyang are testing each other through the latest round of exchanges. After all, the suspicions between them are so deep that they can not be removed immediately," Wang said.
"Wariness in Seoul is still high because its security concerns will not be addressed until Pyongyang gives up its nuclear program. However, Pyongyang will obviously not easily abandon its nuclear policy."
Yu Shaohua, director of the Department for Asia-Pacific Security and Cooperation Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, agreed that North Korea's response to the military drills was "not as strong as before."
While South Korean officials have warned that North Korea is technically ready to conduct a fourth nuclear test, Yu said the likelihood of another nuclear test is low, at least for now.
"Pyongyang is expected to show a more positive attitude this year, because the current situation on the Korean Peninsula does not make Pyongyang feel that it is necessary to hold another nuclear test or take other extreme actions," Yu told the newspaper.
China, the North's key ally, was engaged in rare "shuttle diplomacy" with the two Koreas last week and said it yielded "positive results."
The highly unusual trip by China's Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin to both Koreas came shortly after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry discussed with Chinese leaders in Beijing specific ideas to revive the long-stalled six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programs.
During the back-to-back visit, China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Liu put a "high premium on moving the situation on the Korean Peninsula towards relaxation, preventing the repetition of previous tensions and promoting denuclearization of the Peninsula."
The two Koreas "responded positively, and the visits scored positive results," Hua said. "China will stay committed to safeguarding regional peace and stability and properly resolving the Korean nuclear issue."
The six-party talks, involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan, have been dormant since late 2008.
South Korea and the U.S. insist that the six-party forum should reopen only when North Korea shows its readiness to disarm through action. China, along with North Korea, insists on no conditions being attached.
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